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Predicting Wins: Measuring the Impact of Players with Unit Tags in the Solo Queue.

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With the recent addition of Community Warfare Phase 1, we now have the ability to officially start and display player run units (also sometimes called guilds and clans). While the range of skill between these units is diverse, I decided to run an experiment measuring whether or not the team with more unit tagged players won more in the Solo Queue. It seemed reasonable to believe they would, but I wanted to confirm my suspicion and quantify it.

Number of Solo Queue Matches: 112

Number of Matches with 1 or more unit tagged players than the other team: 93

Number of Matches with just 1 more unit tagged player than the other team: 38

Number of Matches with 2 or more unit tagged players than the other team: 55

Number of Matches with an even number of unit tagged players between teams: 19

Number of Unit Tagged Players: 1204/2688 (44.8%)

Number of Lone Wolves: 1484/2688 (55.2%)

The Results:

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Surprisingly, a single unit tagged player advantage did not translate into any discernible advantage. However, when you had 2 or more unit tagged players compared to the other team, the odds of winning skyrockets to 70.9%! So, if you find yourself down 2 or more unit tagged players in the solo queue, you better carry hard if you want to win.

Author’s Notes: I’m aware that the sample value is a little low at the moment and I will likely need to double my matches to get more confident numbers. Look at this as me sharing my preliminary work until I can play more matches. Stay tuned.

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